Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams

Holistic water quality models to support decision-making in lowland catchments with competing stakeholder perspectives are still limited. To address this gap, an integrated system dynamics model for quantity and (including stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, macronutrients) was developed. Adaptable plug-n-play modules handle the complexity (sources, pathways) related both urban agricultural/natural land-use features. The applied a data-rich catchment uncover key insights into governing peri-urban stream. Performance indicators demonstrate successfully captured quantity/quality variations interactions (with, e.g., Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency ranging from very good satisfactory). Model simulation sensitivity results could then highlight influence of temperature enhanced heterotrophic respiration summer, causing low oxygen levels potentially affecting ecological quality. Probabilistic uncertainty combined rich dataset show high potential ammonium uptake macrophyte-dominated reach. further suggest phosphorus remobilization streambed sediment become important diffuse nutrient source should other sources (e.g., effluents) be mitigated. These findings especially design green transition solutions, where single-objective management strategies may negatively impact aquatic ecosystems.